Energy Forecast Modelling (EMF)

Energy monitoring is one of the most important aspects in Energy Management of an organization. It generally consists of energy meters at key locations in the plant. Metered data are then analyzed to derive the specific energy consumption at the plant level and the individual equipment level. Daily, Monthly and Annual reports are prepared based on actual energy consumptions only.

Energy Targeting is done normally considering the previous best.

• Excel based report
• SPC based monitoring
• Daily report based on actual
• Comparison with previous best

• With the variation in production volume, SPC also varies greatly. The management cannot judge the actual plant performance or predict the target SPC figure as Fix and variable energy components are not explicit in SPC based monitoring.
• The complexity of targeting further increases in the multi-product facilities, as the overall SPC can vary depending on the product mix.
• Typically, Energy Manager or Utility manager is assigned the task of energy management. Although, the utility consumption are monitored and analyzed, the energy manager does not have information on variation in actual production cycle times and impact of the same on SPC. Hence, it becomes difficult for him to effectively control the energy consumption.
• There is lack of information on effect of variations in process, practices and utility efficiencies.
• Variable Energy Component not explicit through SPC

• Introduce a system that would allow management to compare the energy performance of equipment/system/section of a facility and/or each site/plant for a multi facility company.
• To standardize the specific energy consumption for each site/key process, so as to enable the management to set up an accurate and controlled targeting system.
• For the multi-facility company, by taking into account the regional differences, an evolution of meaningful performance indicator/s to enable individual sites for their performance and efficiency comparison with similar sites.
• Identification and accounting of non-energy factors such as climate, production type & size, energy sources etc. affecting energy consumption which otherwise makes comparison of energy usage between sites difficult.
• To enable the management to determine accurately the savings and payback periods and ensure confident project sanctions.
• Determination of specific energy consumption norms for various plant sections/group of products based on actual measurements/theoretical calculations and operating hours etc.,
• Segregation of fix and variable loads for each process/group of product and impact of the same on specific energy consumption with respect to variation in production quantity.
• Study of existing status of Energy metering, reporting and monitoring systems and specifying gaps, if any.
• To stimulate site managers and create staff awareness.

• Period of Analysis
• Operating Mode-Forecast/ Actual
• Operating Shifts and Days
• Production Plan/Actual-from SAP
• Volume mix of products in various equipment types
• Operation of Utilities

• Energy Consumption Forecast/Actual
• Summary of Energy Consumption
• Plant Level
• Block wise
• Equipment Category wise
• Utilities
• Comparison with measured Energy Consumption – “VARIANCE”

Model based on

• Processing steps
• Cycle Times
• Product Characteristics
• Equipment Usage

Typical Model Structure

• Measured energy norms for a given equipment and product category
• Computed energy consumption for given production volume (as variable loads)
• Computed energy consumption of fixed loads based on operating shifts/day
• Derived SPC
• Distribution of production volumes over equipment categories
• Fixed Load segregated
• Standard losses incorporated
• Data entry constraints to ensure consistency of data
• Easy-to-use reports

The EFM, can find its usefulness in wide sector of industries; whether continuous, semi-continuous or batch processes alike. For continuous processes, the utility share (both fixed as well as variable component) can be usefully linked with production/s.

For a batch and a semi-batch processes, though, the EFM primarily being a tool for Energy management is equally useful for predictive maintenance since it enables the plant personnel to address section/equipment level SPC’s as well.